Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Will Consumer Electronics Innovation Reach a Plateau?

In the age of consumer electronics where cell phones, computers, and televisions have dominated the market for the last 10 years, I have but one question: In what direction will consumer electronics go in the future?

The trend over the last 5 years with televisions has been increasing the resolution to high definition and most currently having a thinner display. LCD televisions are becoming extremely popular, with the future being even thinner OLED displays. The future for movies looks to be downloadable content through services like Slingbox, which use the internet for movie/TV show viewing. DVDs and Blu-Ray discs will slowly fade out to downloadable content, similar to the way that CD sales have diminished. Home entertainment will all be administered through a television (most likely thinner than your wallet) that has all of these capabilities combined.

Computer innovation has been stagnant for the last 10-15 years. Windows Vista is organized the exact same way as Windows 95, except it is more visually appealing. Laptops have not changed much in the last 10 years either, except being thinner with a nicer screen, and touch screen laptops (AKA tablet PCs) have yet to catch on. This trend of thinner, lighter, and prettier laptops will continue without any major changes to laptop design.

The cell phone innovation throughout the last 5 years started off with the thinner the better. The original Motorola RAZR was instantly popular because of its thin appearance, but recently touch screen cell phones have increased in popularity. These phones have taken a step backwards, however, because of their poor touch functionality and clunky appearance. The next step for phones will be touch screen phones that have better design and perfected touch screen controls. They will also decrease in thickness as well. The cell phone interface will not change significantly, with internet and GPS already included with many phones, but internet service will be much faster than current cell phone internet.

After stating my believed technological advances for the future, there will never be a plateau with electronic innovation, but the rate of technological advancements will drastically decrease. Most improvements to electronic devices will occur slowly over time (no large leaps) so that businesses can make more money. Apple's iPod has been a prime example of this strategy. Each iPod has typically had just one more "major" feature than the last, so Apple can market the product and make more money. There will be no significant "breakthroughs" in computers in the foreseeable future, with most changes being with cell phone appearance. These cell phone advances won't be major, and that is okay with me. Technology has already increased laziness in America and around the world. If everything a person needs can be accessed from the couch (pizza orders, online shopping), physical activity in America will continue to decline. Great...

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